Nirmal Rayon Ltd

 Nirmal Cotton Ltd Dissertation

Problem/Issue: The MARYLAND of Nirmal Rayon needs to decide whether to grow the capacity to 7500 soucis. The MD wants to receive reliable volume forecast for ten number of years to make the decision. Condition Analysis:

i)Textile Industry: The amount forecast have been calculated employing chain ratio method. The estimates provided by consultant have taken the following assumptions which seem valid: a)Per capita usage – To get past situation in mind, the estimate of 14. your five meters seems pretty fair b)Population expansion – The population growth info is taken roughly around 2% per year which is also fair enough c)Decrease in total % share of cellophane due to new technological developments -- With the expectation of new technology development in this area, the demand pertaining to cellulose centered film is bound to decrease. But nonetheless the basis to get decrease in total % share of cellophane from 74% in 1972 to 64% in 1977 is usually not clear. General consultants' estimates match Preparing commission's approximate. ii)Cigarettes Market: There are below mentioned imperfections in the estimation: a)The development is greater than the set up capacity

b)No cause-effect relationship among cigarette production and time c)Replacement by a cheaper paper-polyethylene laminate has been neglected d)Decrease in demand due to labor attacks cannot be predicted through regression analysis Having a conservative approach and choosing excise duty and less expensive products at heart, it should be sensible to take a 50% while wrapping percentage for the entire year 1977 rather than 55%. Based on this the forecast just for this industry would come out to get 2106 considerations (84240 times 0. 05 x zero. 5). iii)Confectionery - The growth rate of unorganized sector is likely to be five per cent but calculation done with 6%. Figures of total cellophane not coordinating with solution: - (0. 8*organized + 0. 05*unorganized) * zero. 04 2.. 15 which in turn comes out to be 676. 855 considerations. iv) Pharmaceutical drug – The subsequent flaws inside the estimation of demand....


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